Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

32

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Australian Mortgage Market Reaches Record $2.41 Trillion

10 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In November 2025, Australia's mortgage market achieved a new milestone, with the total value of residential mortgages reaching $2.41 trillion. This record-breaking figure reflects a 0.67% increase from the previous month and a 6.36% rise over the past year, as reported by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). - read more

Australian Homeowners Embrace Refinancing Amid Rate Cuts

10 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian mortgage market has witnessed a significant surge in refinancing activity, with nearly 100,000 loans refinanced in the June 2025 quarter. This marks the highest level since September 2023 and reflects homeowners' proactive responses to recent interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). - read more

APRA's New Cap on High Debt-to-Income Home Loans: What Borrowers Need to Know

02 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a significant policy change aimed at mitigating risks in the housing market. Effective February 2026, APRA will implement a cap on high debt-to-income (DTI) home loans, limiting banks to issuing no more than 20% of new home loans with DTI ratios of six times or higher. This measure applies to both owner-occupier and investor loans, excluding new housing developments. - read more

Japanese Banks SMBC and MUFG Drive Growth in Australian Business Lending

02 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

In a notable shift within Australia's financial sector, Japanese banking giants Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) have emerged as key drivers of growth in business lending. As of July 2025, business lending volumes across Australia's top 10 authorized deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) reached A$925 billion, with SMBC and MUFG leading the expansion. - read more

LMG's Asset Finance Exchange Hits $80 Million Milestone in First Year

02 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

Loan Market Group's (LMG) Asset Finance Exchange (AFX) has achieved a significant milestone, reporting approximately $80 million in settlements within its inaugural year. This accomplishment underscores the increasing demand for asset finance solutions among Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Find out now if you qualify and compare rates, offers and options from multiple lenders - without a credit check! - read more

Click for more Finance News