We are a proud member of the Financial Services Online network!
Connect with us on your favourite social media platform for the latest financial news, views, tips, tricks, resources and information.
Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season
Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season
Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.
In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.
“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”
Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.
Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.
The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.
The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.
The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.
Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.
Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori
Share this news item:
| Mortgage Crisis: 40% of Australian Homeowners Under Pressure 09 Sep 2024: Paige Estritori A recent study has uncovered that an alarming number of Australian households are grappling with mortgage burdens, as over 1.4 million families find themselves in financial distress. This amounts to more than 40% of current home loan holders, according to new data from Finder, a consumer finance comparison service. - read more |
| Contactless Revolution: The Decline of Cash Among Tradies 07 Sep 2024: Paige Estritori Australia is embracing a cashless economy, a trend that is significantly reshaping how tradespeople, or 'tradies,' handle transactions in their day-to-day operations. - read more |
| RBA Remains Cautious Despite Economic Slowdown 06 Sep 2024: Paige Estritori Borrowers expecting a reduction in interest rates due to sluggish economic growth might have to wait longer, as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prioritizes inflation management. - read more |
| NSW Cracks Down on Abuse of First-Home Buyer Benefits 02 Sep 2024: Paige Estritori More than $9 million has been reclaimed in a concerted effort by Revenue NSW to ensure the first-home buyers program remains fair and effective. This initiative comes in response to a small group of applicants attempting to exploit the system meant to aid genuine first-time homebuyers. - read more |
| Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season 01 Sep 2024: Paige Estritori As Australians continue to face a challenging cost of living crisis, economic analysts have prepared retailers for a rocky road ahead as the Christmas season approaches. - read more |
| The Power of a Good Credit Score: Tips to Maintain and Protect Yours Credit scores play a crucial role in the financial journey of any individual, especially in Australia where they serve as a snapshot of your financial reliability. This numerical expression based on a level analysis of a person's credit files has a far-reaching impact on various aspects of financial borrowings. - read more
|
| Mastering Money: Strategies to Boost Your Financial Health Financial health is a crucial aspect of overall well-being, particularly in the ever-evolving economic landscape of Australia. The capacity to manage personal finances effectively not only provides a sense of security but also opens doors to opportunities that might otherwise be out of reach. As such, mastering the art of money management is an indispensable skill for Australians from all walks of life. - read more
|
| Investing in Your Future: Building a Solid Financial Plan Investing in your future is not just a prudent choice; it’s a necessity, particularly in the context of Australia's dynamic financial landscape. Making significant purchases like a home or car, or even affording a dream holiday, requires a strategic approach to saving. Understanding the value of foresight and preparation is the first step toward making your financial dreams a reality. - read more
|
| Smart Saving for Big Purchases: Training Your Dollars to Work Harder With the rising costs of living and the all-too-familiar financial hurdles, saving for large purchases can seem like a daunting task for many Australians. From buying a new car to securing the deposit on a home, significant expenses require a level of financial commitment and foresight that goes beyond everyday spending. - read more
|
| Avoiding Loan Rejection: How to Present Yourself as a Creditworthy Applicant Understanding the Debt-to-Income Ratio (DTI) is a crucial step toward solidifying your status as a creditworthy loan applicant. DTI is a key determinant used by lenders to gauge your ability to manage monthly payments and repay debts. It's essentially a numerical comparison between your total monthly debt and your gross monthly income, serving as a beacon of your financial health to potential creditors. - read more
|
|
Do You Qualify? Crucial Factors That Affect Your Loan Approval Odds For Australians, the quest to secure a loan can be as nerve-wracking as it is pivotal. Whether it's to finance a home, car, or even to consolidate debts, the outcome can profoundly impact your financial trajectory. Acquiring loan approval is not merely about ticking boxes; it's about presenting a financial profile that reassures lenders of your capacity and commitment to repay. - read more
|
|
How to Boost Your Chances of Loan Approval The loan approval process can often seem complex and daunting, but understanding what it entails is the first step toward boosting your chances. In essence, loan approval is the lender's process of assessing whether you are a viable candidate for the loan you have applied for. This involves evaluating your financial history, current financial status, and the potential risks involved in lending to you. - read more
|
|
Top 10 Smart Borrowing Strategies for Australians: A Comprehensive Guide Smart borrowing is crucial for individuals and businesses in Australia to manage their financial goals effectively. With a well thought-out borrowing strategy, you can optimize your finances, minimize costs, and achieve your financial objectives. - read more
|
|
Understanding Interest Rates: How to Get the Best Deal on Your Loan in 2024 As we step into the year 2024, the financial landscape continues to evolve, bringing to the fore the ever-critical subject of interest rates. For anyone considering taking out a loan, whether for a car, a home, or personal expenses, understanding the mechanics of interest rates is not just beneficial; it’s essential. - read more
|
|
Deciphering Loan Terms: A Comprehensive Guide for Australian Borrowers For many Australians, taking out a loan is a key step towards achieving personal and financial milestones, whether it's purchasing a home, investing in education, or starting a business. However, the excitement of these life events can be overshadowed by the complexity of loan agreements. Understanding the terms of a loan is not just about ticking off legal requirements—it's about ensuring financial stability and making informed decisions that align with one's financial goals. - read more
|
We respect your privacy.
An agreement between a borrower and a lender that allows the borrower to lock in the interest rate on a mortgage for a specified time period.
Quick Links: | Compare Loans | Bad Credit Loans | Finance For Self-employed | Low Rates | Free Loan Assessment