Retail Sector Braces for Tough Holiday Season

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

Over the last year and a half, the Australian retail sector has been navigating what might be described as a recession, mostly indicated by declining trade figures. This downturn presents significant obstacles for retailers as they head towards one of the busiest times of the year.

In a sobering analysis by Deloitte Access Economics, partner Dave Rumbens highlights that retail spending has consistently declined over six of the previous seven quarters. This decrease is compounded by high living costs, rising interest rates, and stagnant wage growth, leading to an overall grim economic outlook.

“We’ve seen retailers struggle significantly," said Rumbens. "Real retail turnover has dropped for eight consecutive quarters, and consumer spending has barely budged at a 1.3% increase over the past 12 months.”

Data reveals that the national real GDP growth up to March was just 1.1%, the lowest rate outside pandemic years since the 90s. According to Rumbens, this is a clear signal that Australia’s retail industry has been in a persistent recession for 18 months.

Despite the bleak outlook, this contraction in the retail sector is not surprising, given the weakening job market and the rising number of business insolvencies. “On a per capita basis, the reality is even harsher with real per capita retail spending shrinking by 2.5% compared to last year and further declining by 6.3% since June 2022,” explained Rumbens.

The "economic horror show" does not solely impact retailers; it reflects a broader economic malaise. With real consumer spending on retail down by 0.6% over the year to June, Rumbens predicts a difficult period ahead, though he remains hopeful that future years might bring some relief.

The Deloitte report underscores that new financial relief measures, including energy bill subsidies and tax cuts, might help increase disposable income and improve retail turnover. “While retailers should brace for continued challenges through the holiday season, we anticipate some gradual recovery," said Rumbens. Predictive figures show real retail turnover growth potentially rising from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in both 2025 and 2026.

The recent monthly Consumer Price Index report for July shows inflation easing down to 3.5%, and underlying inflation dipping to 3.8%. Such signs might be initial indicators of economic stabilization, offering a glimmer of hope for Australian retailers.

Amidst this “new normal” of cautious and value-focused consumer behavior, the path to recovery might be slow, but not unattainable. Retailers who can adapt to the evolving economic landscape will be better positioned to overcome the tumultuous times still expected before a more stable future in 2025-26.

Published:Sunday, 1st Sep 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Australian Stock Market Achieves New Milestone with ASX 200 Record High

26 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) 200 has reached a historic milestone, closing at a record high of 9,128 points. This remarkable achievement was primarily driven by robust performances in the consumer non-cyclicals and materials sectors. - read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Lifts Cash Rate to 3.85% to Combat Inflation

26 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced a 25 basis point increase in the cash rate, bringing it to 3.85%. This decision reflects the central bank's commitment to addressing persistent inflationary pressures within the Australian economy. - read more

ANZ CFO Summit 2026: Navigating AI's Role in Finance Leadership

26 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The ANZ CFO Summit 2026 is set to convene nearly 2,000 finance leaders from Australia and New Zealand to explore the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the finance sector. Scheduled for March 3, 2026, this virtual event aims to equip finance professionals with the tools and insights needed to navigate the evolving landscape of finance leadership. - read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Lifts Cash Rate to 3.85% to Combat Inflation

18 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced an increase in the cash rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 3.85%. This decision, made during the February 2026 meeting, aims to address the persistent inflationary pressures affecting the Australian economy. - read more

NAB Anticipates Dual RBA Rate Increases in 2026 to Address Inflation

18 Feb 2026: Paige Estritori

National Australia Bank (NAB) has revised its economic outlook, now forecasting two interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in 2026. This adjustment reflects concerns over persistent inflationary pressures within the Australian economy. - read more

Click for more Finance News