Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends
Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends
7
The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As financial experts eagerly await the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) upcoming board meeting, the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has shifted its forecast regarding the advent of the next rate cut.
Contrary to popular anticipation, the bank now predicts the rate cut will be delayed, posing less optimistic news for mortgage holders seeking financial reprieve.
The financial community widely expects the RBA to keep the cash rate stable during this session, a forecast deemed straightforward in light of the recent federal budget. However, CBA's latest insights suggest the easing cycle-initially anticipated to alleviate strained mortgage holders-will be postponed due to prevailing uncertainties surrounding inflation forecasts.
Gareth Aird, CBA's head of Australian economics, indicated that recent labor market data shows little motivation for the RBA to alter its policy direction. According to Aird, the current state of the labor market, characterized by a "loosening" at essential levels, supports a prediction that the RBA will maintain the cash rate unchanged.
"Both trend unemployment and underemployment are experiencing a gradual upward trajectory," Aird stated in the latest CBA Economics update. "Work hours are declining, and job advertisements show a discernible downward trend."
Highlighting these labor market dynamics, Aird elaborated, "Our expectation for a more significant loosening in the labor market, which varies from the RBA’s forecasts, is a principal reason why we foresee the commencement of an easing cycle in late 2024. Yet, given the persistent challenges with underlying inflation and the shrinking period to November, the likelihood of a delayed start to the easing cycle is increasing."
The economic slowdown was further highlighted by the first-quarter GDP data, which grew by a mere 0.1%. Over six months, the annualized GDP growth pace reduced to 0.8%. The RBA's current forecast places the average unemployment rate at 4.0% over the second quarter, consistent with recent predictions.
Aird noted, "Despite the bank’s non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment estimated at 4.3%, there remains significant uncertainty regarding these projections." Additionally, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock opined that the federal government’s $300 energy bill rebate is unlikely to either significantly mitigate or exacerbate inflation levels.
Aird supported this view, referencing earlier CBA economic predictions that the rebates might subtract two-thirds of a percentage point from the third quarter’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). "While this impact is noteworthy, the RBA is more focused on the core inflation dynamics, which excludes the effects of energy rebates," he remarked.
"Our perspective is that the mechanical reduction in headline inflation for Q3, due to rebates, will potentially lower short-term inflation expectations for households and businesses, helping stabilize wage expectations over 2024 and 2025," Aird added.
The RBA's accompanying statement to its board decision is expected to maintain a neutral stance. Despite the fluctuating dynamics and economic signals, Aird emphasized that predicting the exact timing for the commencement of an easing cycle remains inherently uncertain.
Published:Saturday, 15th Jun 2024 Source: Paige Estritori
Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.
Westpac Banking Corporation is undertaking a significant transformation, focusing on expanding its business lending capabilities to better serve Australia's small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This strategic shift involves replacing traditional in-branch tellers with dedicated bankers specialising in home and business lending, aiming to provide more personalised and efficient services to business clients. - read more
Loan Market Group's (LMG) Asset Finance Exchange (AFX) has achieved a significant milestone, reporting approximately $80 million in settlements within its inaugural year. This accomplishment underscores the increasing demand for asset finance solutions among Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). - read more
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has issued a call for the private lending sector to elevate its standards, aiming to align more closely with established banking practices. This initiative follows a comprehensive review that revealed inconsistencies in reporting, opaque fee structures, and inadequate risk disclosures within the industry. - read more
Macquarie Bank has been honored as the Investment Property Lender of the Year in Money magazine's 2025 Consumer Finance Awards. This accolade highlights the bank's commitment to providing flexible and tailored loan products for property investors. Find out now if you qualify and compare rates, offers and options from multiple lenders - without a credit check! - read more
The Australian mortgage market has witnessed a significant surge in refinancing activity, with nearly 100,000 loans refinanced in the June 2025 quarter. This marks the highest level since September 2023 and reflects homeowners' proactive responses to recent interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Find out now if you qualify and compare rates, offers and options from multiple lenders - without a credit check! - read more
Credit scores play a crucial role in loan applications, determining eligibility and interest rates for borrowers. Understanding how credit scores are calculated and the impact they have on loan applications is essential for anyone who wants to borrow smartly. - read more
Getting your loan approved is a significant milestone, but it also opens the door to many new responsibilities. Proper management of your finances after loan approval is crucial to avoid common pitfalls that could derail your financial stability. - read more
Freelancers and self-employed individuals in Australia often navigate a unique set of financial challenges. The unpredictable nature of income can make budgeting and long-term financial planning more difficult compared to those with a steady paycheck. As work comes and goes in fluctuating cycles, financial stability can sometimes feel elusive. - read more
Financial health is a crucial aspect of overall well-being, particularly in the ever-evolving economic landscape of Australia. The capacity to manage personal finances effectively not only provides a sense of security but also opens doors to opportunities that might otherwise be out of reach. As such, mastering the art of money management is an indispensable skill for Australians from all walks of life. - read more
Personal loans are a financial tool that many young professionals consider when they need extra funds. Whether it's for consolidating debt, covering unexpected expenses, or making a big purchase, personal loans can provide the flexibility you need to manage your finances effectively. - read more
Need Help Finding a Loan?
Find out now if you qualify and
compare rates, offers and options from multiple lenders - without a credit check!
All finance quotes are provided free (via our secure server) and without
obligation. We respect your
privacy.
Knowledgebase
Underwater Mortgage: A mortgage in which the balance owed on the loan is greater than the value of the property securing the loan.
