Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends
Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends
7
The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As financial experts eagerly await the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) upcoming board meeting, the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has shifted its forecast regarding the advent of the next rate cut.
Contrary to popular anticipation, the bank now predicts the rate cut will be delayed, posing less optimistic news for mortgage holders seeking financial reprieve.
The financial community widely expects the RBA to keep the cash rate stable during this session, a forecast deemed straightforward in light of the recent federal budget. However, CBA's latest insights suggest the easing cycle-initially anticipated to alleviate strained mortgage holders-will be postponed due to prevailing uncertainties surrounding inflation forecasts.
Gareth Aird, CBA's head of Australian economics, indicated that recent labor market data shows little motivation for the RBA to alter its policy direction. According to Aird, the current state of the labor market, characterized by a "loosening" at essential levels, supports a prediction that the RBA will maintain the cash rate unchanged.
"Both trend unemployment and underemployment are experiencing a gradual upward trajectory," Aird stated in the latest CBA Economics update. "Work hours are declining, and job advertisements show a discernible downward trend."
Highlighting these labor market dynamics, Aird elaborated, "Our expectation for a more significant loosening in the labor market, which varies from the RBA’s forecasts, is a principal reason why we foresee the commencement of an easing cycle in late 2024. Yet, given the persistent challenges with underlying inflation and the shrinking period to November, the likelihood of a delayed start to the easing cycle is increasing."
The economic slowdown was further highlighted by the first-quarter GDP data, which grew by a mere 0.1%. Over six months, the annualized GDP growth pace reduced to 0.8%. The RBA's current forecast places the average unemployment rate at 4.0% over the second quarter, consistent with recent predictions.
Aird noted, "Despite the bank’s non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment estimated at 4.3%, there remains significant uncertainty regarding these projections." Additionally, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock opined that the federal government’s $300 energy bill rebate is unlikely to either significantly mitigate or exacerbate inflation levels.
Aird supported this view, referencing earlier CBA economic predictions that the rebates might subtract two-thirds of a percentage point from the third quarter’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). "While this impact is noteworthy, the RBA is more focused on the core inflation dynamics, which excludes the effects of energy rebates," he remarked.
"Our perspective is that the mechanical reduction in headline inflation for Q3, due to rebates, will potentially lower short-term inflation expectations for households and businesses, helping stabilize wage expectations over 2024 and 2025," Aird added.
The RBA's accompanying statement to its board decision is expected to maintain a neutral stance. Despite the fluctuating dynamics and economic signals, Aird emphasized that predicting the exact timing for the commencement of an easing cycle remains inherently uncertain.
Published:Saturday, 15th Jun 2024 Source: Paige Estritori
Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.
Westpac Banking Corporation is undertaking a significant transformation, focusing on expanding its business lending capabilities to better serve Australia's small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This strategic shift involves replacing traditional in-branch tellers with dedicated bankers specialising in home and business lending, aiming to provide more personalised and efficient services to business clients. - read more
Loan Market Group's (LMG) Asset Finance Exchange (AFX) has achieved a significant milestone, reporting approximately $80 million in settlements within its inaugural year. This accomplishment underscores the increasing demand for asset finance solutions among Australian small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). - read more
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has issued a call for the private lending sector to elevate its standards, aiming to align more closely with established banking practices. This initiative follows a comprehensive review that revealed inconsistencies in reporting, opaque fee structures, and inadequate risk disclosures within the industry. - read more
Macquarie Bank has been honored as the Investment Property Lender of the Year in Money magazine's 2025 Consumer Finance Awards. This accolade highlights the bank's commitment to providing flexible and tailored loan products for property investors. Find out now if you qualify and compare rates, offers and options from multiple lenders - without a credit check! - read more
The Australian mortgage market has witnessed a significant surge in refinancing activity, with nearly 100,000 loans refinanced in the June 2025 quarter. This marks the highest level since September 2023 and reflects homeowners' proactive responses to recent interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Find out now if you qualify and compare rates, offers and options from multiple lenders - without a credit check! - read more
Starting a business is an exciting venture, often filled with dreams and aspirations of growing a successful enterprise. For many first-time entrepreneurs, securing a business loan can be a crucial step in turning these dreams into reality. Business loans provide the necessary funds for growth and expansion, enabling startups to invest in equipment, hire employees, and expand marketing efforts. - read more
Loan management skills are crucial for individuals and families in Australia, as they play a vital role in managing finances and achieving financial stability. Effective loan management enables individuals to make sound financial decisions and avoid falling into debt traps. This article aims to highlight the importance of acquiring loan management skills and how it can benefit Australians. - read more
Smart borrowing is crucial for individuals and businesses in Australia to manage their financial goals effectively. With a well thought-out borrowing strategy, you can optimize your finances, minimize costs, and achieve your financial objectives. - read more
Personal loans have become an increasingly popular financial tool among millennials in Australia. As the cost of living rises and life goals such as buying a home or pursuing higher education loom on the horizon, personal loans offer a means to achieve these goals with more immediate access to funds. However, the array of options and terms can be bewildering, making it crucial for young adults to approach borrowing with a prudent mindset. - read more
In today's digital age, the landscape of borrowing has evolved with the emergence of online loans. The convenience and accessibility offered by online lenders have made them an increasingly popular choice for Australians seeking financial assistance. However, it is essential to approach online borrowing with caution and make informed decisions to ensure smart borrowing practices. - read more
Need Help Finding a Loan?
Find out now if you qualify and
compare rates, offers and options from multiple lenders - without a credit check!
All finance quotes are provided free (via our secure server) and without
obligation. We respect your
privacy.
Knowledgebase
Mutual Fund: An investment vehicle made up of a pool of funds collected from many investors for the purpose of investing in securities such as stocks, bonds, money market instruments, and other assets.
