We are a proud member of the Financial Services Online network!
Connect with us on your favourite social media platform for the latest financial news, views, tips, tricks, resources and information.
Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades
Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades
Damien Hennessy, the Head of Asset Allocation at Zenith Investment Partners, highlights this change in sentiment as investors foresee potential inflation due to Trump's economic agenda coupled with record-high U.S. debt levels. Such dynamics could further intensify market volatility.
"Bond yields are climbing because the underlying U.S. economy has surpassed expectations, running into disinflationary headwinds seen in the last 12 to 18 months," Hennessy remarked. "This situation is now pressuring U.S. equity market valuations."
Reflecting on recent trends, back in September, low bond yields had investors bracing for a recession, with predictions for interest rates dropping to 2.8% by early 2026. Current expectations, however, have shifted towards a rate increase nearing 4%. The market has transitioned from forecasting up to nine cuts to possibly just one or two, signifying a significant turnaround.
Hennessy noted a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields to 4.8%, impacting both the stock and bond markets. Concurrently, the U.S. dollar's rise has led to a depreciation of the Australian dollar to US62 cents.
"Market dynamics, driven by the anticipated rapid enactment of many of Trump's policies in 2025, hinge on sustained economic growth around 2.8%," explained Hennessy. "Yet, this optimism may face challenges as not all policies may be quickly executed as some expect."
With bond yields nearing 5%, Hennessy posits that bonds could offer substantial value for long-term investors, prompting a reconsideration of portfolio compositions to include bonds and duration. He added, "Until now, rising bond yields have been largely ignored by equity markets, but there comes a threshold where they begin to challenge equity valuations significantly."
The correlation between high bond yields and reduced risk premiums in equities necessitates confidence in continued earnings growth. Hennessy anticipates that the tension between bond yields and equity valuations will dominate market discussions throughout 2025.
Addressing the Australian market, Hennessy observed that local conditions remain challenging. "Valuations domestically are stretched, confronting Australian equities with a difficult environment. The sentiment may benefit slightly from a rate cut, but overall, the Australian share market faces considerable challenges."
The insights provided in this article are based on an analysis originally reported by Yasmine Raso on January 22, 2025.
Published:Wednesday, 22nd Jan 2025
Source: Paige Estritori
Share this news item:
| Markets Brace for Trumpflation as Rate Cut Mirage Fades 22 Jan 2025: Paige Estritori As Donald Trump embarks on his second presidential term, investors are shifting focus from a prolonged rate reduction period to what is being called 'Trumpflation'. This marks a notable shift towards anticipating inflationary pressures under Trump's pro-growth policies. - read more |
| RBA's Tug of War with Australia's Market Growth 21 Jan 2025: Paige Estritori As Australia's Reserve Bank grapples with economic challenges, its decisive interest rate hikes have led to a contraction in demand, achieving their intended result but with considerable impact on the private sector. - read more |
| Thousands of Australians Turning to Debt Help Services Amid Financial Crisis 17 Jan 2025: Paige Estritori A significant increase in the number of Australians reaching out for debt assistance is reshaping the financial landscape of the country. As the cost of living surges and interest rates climb, many individuals are finding it increasingly challenging to manage their finances. - read more |
| Consumer Confidence Takes a Hit Amid Economic Uncertainty 15 Jan 2025: Paige Estritori In a recent shift, consumer sentiment has experienced a noticeable decline as January brings a wave of pessimism about the economy. This change in mood among consumers could signal challenges ahead for various sectors, particularly in retail and discretionary spending. - read more |
| ASIC Unveils Updated Guidance to Strengthen Financial Advice Standards 14 Jan 2025: Paige Estritori The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has rolled out a fresh set of guidelines aimed at enhancing the quality of financial advice in the wake of significant legislative reforms. This move aligns with the recently enacted Treasury Laws Amendments (Delivering Better Financial Outcomes and Other Measures) Act 2024, which is designed to foster better financial outcomes for consumers. - read more |
| Do You Qualify? Crucial Factors That Affect Your Loan Approval Odds For Australians, the quest to secure a loan can be as nerve-wracking as it is pivotal. Whether it's to finance a home, car, or even to consolidate debts, the outcome can profoundly impact your financial trajectory. Acquiring loan approval is not merely about ticking boxes; it's about presenting a financial profile that reassures lenders of your capacity and commitment to repay. - read more
|
| Essential Factors to Consider When Comparing Australian Loan Providers Understanding the nuances of interest rates in today's Australian financial landscape is more than a matter of mere fiscal responsibility; it is a critical step in safeguarding your personal economy and ensuring that any loan acquired aligns perfectly with your financial aspirations for 2024 and beyond. In a world where every percentage point can translate into significant savings or costs over time, grasping what's at stake when selecting a loan provider becomes an essential skill. - read more
|
| Investing in Your Future: Building a Solid Financial Plan Investing in your future is not just a prudent choice; it’s a necessity, particularly in the context of Australia's dynamic financial landscape. Making significant purchases like a home or car, or even affording a dream holiday, requires a strategic approach to saving. Understanding the value of foresight and preparation is the first step toward making your financial dreams a reality. - read more
|
| Understanding Loan Comparison: A Guide for New Borrowers For new borrowers, stepping into the world of loans can be overwhelming. There are numerous options available, and each comes with its own set of terms, interest rates, and features. - read more
|
| How to Improve Your Credit Score in 30 Days Understanding your credit score is crucial, especially when you're looking to secure a loan. Whether it's for a home, a car, or personal use, a good credit score can make a significant difference in the type of loan you qualify for and the interest rates you'll be offered. - read more
|
|
|
Do You Qualify? Crucial Factors That Affect Your Loan Approval Odds For Australians, the quest to secure a loan can be as nerve-wracking as it is pivotal. Whether it's to finance a home, car, or even to consolidate debts, the outcome can profoundly impact your financial trajectory. Acquiring loan approval is not merely about ticking boxes; it's about presenting a financial profile that reassures lenders of your capacity and commitment to repay. - read more
|
|
What to Do If Your Loan Application Is Denied If you're here, you've likely faced the disappointment of having your loan application denied. - read more
|
|
|
Understanding Loan Comparison: A Guide for New Borrowers For new borrowers, stepping into the world of loans can be overwhelming. There are numerous options available, and each comes with its own set of terms, interest rates, and features. - read more
|
|
The Art of Loan Management: An Essential Skill for Australians Loan management skills are crucial for individuals and families in Australia, as they play a vital role in managing finances and achieving financial stability. Effective loan management enables individuals to make sound financial decisions and avoid falling into debt traps. This article aims to highlight the importance of acquiring loan management skills and how it can benefit Australians. - read more
|
|
The Impact of Credit Scores on Loan Applications: How to Borrow Smartly Credit scores play a crucial role in loan applications, determining eligibility and interest rates for borrowers. Understanding how credit scores are calculated and the impact they have on loan applications is essential for anyone who wants to borrow smartly. - read more
|
We respect your privacy.
The process of gradually paying off a debt over a period of time through regular payments.
Quick Links: | Compare Loans | Bad Credit Loans | Finance For Self-employed | Low Rates | Free Loan Assessment