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Aussie Interest Rates Set to Plunge: What You Need to Know

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

In a surprising economic twist, experts are predicting a sizable reduction in Australia's interest rates in the coming years.

According to futures pricing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), there are four rate cuts on the horizon through 2025.

This prediction comes amid various economic challenges globally and domestically.

ANZ Bank's latest chart indicates a slower start to the Aussie interest rate easing cycle compared to other regions. However, it's expected that once Australia begins, it will eventually surpass other economies in terms of rate reductions. This forecast is influenced by several pivotal factors, particularly the declining influence of China on commodity prices.

One compelling illustration of this trend is reflected in current commodity price assumptions such as iron ore at $50, coking coal at $100, thermal coal at $75, and LNG at $7. These prices are much lower than previous peaks, demonstrating a significant downward shift.

The federal budget's projection, which initially estimated a 12% drop in the terms of trade by 2025/26, now appears conservative. Recent analyses suggest that this reduction could be closer to a dramatic 40%. Should this more severe decline materialize, both federal and state budgets' reliance on robust commodity prices for fiscal health will falter, thrusting the economy into a challenging period reminiscent of austerity measures.

As government spending decreases, the Australian economy, sometimes humorously referred to as the 'bedpan economy', may face tough adjustments. Reduced fiscal spending coupled with slow economic growth can create a vacuum, with immigration and real estate remaining as prominent movers.

The anticipated deep interest rate cuts will most likely further intensify housing market activity. Lower borrowing costs generally stimulate housing demand, which can drive property prices higher-a double-edged sword in urban centers where affordability is already strained.

Noted economists generally agree that these conditions could make the Australian economy more reliant on sectors like immigration and property development while traditional strongpoints like resource exports diminish in profitability. The overall outcome might result in more nuanced economic growth, presenting both challenges and opportunities for investors and policymakers alike.

The original analysis underlying this article was provided by ANZ and can offer readers further insight into the broader market implications. With such dynamic economic shifts predicted, stakeholders in financial services, real estate, and investment spheres should brace for potential fluctuations.

Published:Monday, 12th Aug 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

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RBA Holds Cash Rate at 3.60% in November 2025

06 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to keep the official cash rate unchanged at 3.60% during its November 2025 meeting. This decision reflects the central bank's cautious approach in balancing inflation control with employment objectives. - read more

ANZ Revises RBA Rate Cut Forecast to February 2026

06 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

ANZ has adjusted its forecast regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) next cash rate cut, now anticipating the reduction to occur in February 2026. This revision aligns with similar adjustments by other major banks, reflecting a collective response to recent economic data and RBA communications. - read more

Australian Mortgage Brokers Anticipate Competitive Shifts in 2025

06 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian mortgage broking industry is poised for significant changes in 2025, with increased competition and evolving market dynamics shaping the landscape. Factors such as anticipated interest rate adjustments, a surge in refinancing activities, and the growing influence of digital marketing are key drivers of this transformation. - read more

ANZ Bank's Record Fine for Regulatory Misconduct

29 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

In September 2025, ANZ Bank agreed to pay a record A$240 million fine following investigations by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) into multiple regulatory breaches. This penalty highlights the importance of compliance and ethical practices within the banking sector. - read more

CBA's Record Profit Fueled by Lending Expansion

29 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has reported a record full-year cash profit of A$10.25 billion for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025. This impressive performance is primarily attributed to robust growth in both home and business lending. - read more

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