Reserve Bank Anticipates Significant Rate Reduction

1

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The proposed reduction would bring the rate to 4.25%, aligning closely with the neutral range of 3% to 4%, just prior to the extended summer hiatus. ASB Bank has remarked, “the case for another sizeable cut remains almost as strong as it was in October and is the least-regrets path at present.”

ASB highlights, “With inflation back around the target mid-point and spare capacity starting to build up, the amount of monetary restraint needs to be quickly pared back. A 50bp cut would achieve that.” These actions would ensure the official cash rate remains above the estimated 'neutral' level, granting room for adjustments in response to any unexpected inflationary pressures.

According to financial market predictions on Monday, an anticipatory adjustment of 96 basis points is forecasted through the November and February meetings, suggesting an additional likely 50 basis points reduction in February.

Despite the speculation, ASB maintains a projection of a more moderate 25 basis points cut in February, with subsequent decreases at following meetings. The bank asserts, “With the process of monetary policy normalisation largely complete, we expect a higher hurdle to OCR moves over 2025. The speed of future cuts is likely to slow back down over 2025.”

The prospect of ongoing reductions will rely heavily on upcoming financial insights and occurrences. ASB bankers anticipate that the Reserve Bank will signal this in its forthcoming communications. ASB stands by its forecast that, starting 2025, the Reserve Bank might initiate four consecutive 25 basis point deductions, eventually settling the rate at 3.25%.

This expected trajectory remains mostly in line with the 3% endpoint conveyed in preceding Monetary Policy Statements from the Reserve Bank. As noted by ASB, “However, it will be the evolution of the economy and inflation pressures relative to the Reserve Bank’s current expectations that dictates the pace, and we see risks in both directions.”

As sourced from previous reports, including those in reputable financial outlets, the key emphasis remains on responsiveness to future economic indicators and global financial conditions. With the Reserve Bank playing a critical role, the path of the official cash rate will be pivotal in steering New Zealand's economic course over the coming years.

Published:Tuesday, 3rd Dec 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

RBA Holds Cash Rate Steady Amid Inflationary Pressures

08 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is anticipated to maintain its cash rate at 3.60% during the upcoming December 9 meeting, with projections indicating this rate will persist through 2026. This outlook marks a shift from earlier expectations of potential rate cuts in 2026, influenced by higher-than-expected inflation and a robust economic environment. - read more

APRA Implements New Cap on High DTI Home Loans

08 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

In response to escalating property prices and accelerated credit growth, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a new regulatory measure to cap high debt-to-income (DTI) home loans. Effective February 2026, banks and authorized institutions will be restricted to issuing no more than 20% of new home loans with DTI ratios of six times or higher. - read more

ASIC Highlights Concerns in Rapidly Growing Private Lending Sector

08 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has conducted a comprehensive review of the private lending sector, revealing significant inconsistencies and deficiencies. This scrutiny comes in response to the sector's rapid growth, with private credit extending approximately $200 billion in loans, primarily to higher-risk real estate players and property developers. - read more

APRA's New Cap on High DTI Home Loans: What Borrowers Need to Know

30 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a significant policy change aimed at mitigating risks in the housing market. Effective February 2026, APRA will implement a cap on high debt-to-income (DTI) home loans, limiting banks to issuing no more than 20% of new home loans with DTI ratios of six times or higher. This measure applies to both owner-occupier and investor loans, excluding new housing developments. - read more

CBA's Profit Marginally Up Despite Intense Mortgage Market Competition

30 Nov 2025: Paige Estritori

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the nation's largest lender, has reported a modest increase in its first-quarter cash profit, driven by robust growth in home loans and household deposits. The unaudited cash profit for the quarter reached approximately A$2.6 billion, marking a 1% rise from the previous two-quarter average and a 2% increase compared to the same period last year. - read more

Click for more Finance News