Reserve Bank Anticipates Significant Rate Reduction

1

The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.

The proposed reduction would bring the rate to 4.25%, aligning closely with the neutral range of 3% to 4%, just prior to the extended summer hiatus. ASB Bank has remarked, “the case for another sizeable cut remains almost as strong as it was in October and is the least-regrets path at present.”

ASB highlights, “With inflation back around the target mid-point and spare capacity starting to build up, the amount of monetary restraint needs to be quickly pared back. A 50bp cut would achieve that.” These actions would ensure the official cash rate remains above the estimated 'neutral' level, granting room for adjustments in response to any unexpected inflationary pressures.

According to financial market predictions on Monday, an anticipatory adjustment of 96 basis points is forecasted through the November and February meetings, suggesting an additional likely 50 basis points reduction in February.

Despite the speculation, ASB maintains a projection of a more moderate 25 basis points cut in February, with subsequent decreases at following meetings. The bank asserts, “With the process of monetary policy normalisation largely complete, we expect a higher hurdle to OCR moves over 2025. The speed of future cuts is likely to slow back down over 2025.”

The prospect of ongoing reductions will rely heavily on upcoming financial insights and occurrences. ASB bankers anticipate that the Reserve Bank will signal this in its forthcoming communications. ASB stands by its forecast that, starting 2025, the Reserve Bank might initiate four consecutive 25 basis point deductions, eventually settling the rate at 3.25%.

This expected trajectory remains mostly in line with the 3% endpoint conveyed in preceding Monetary Policy Statements from the Reserve Bank. As noted by ASB, “However, it will be the evolution of the economy and inflation pressures relative to the Reserve Bank’s current expectations that dictates the pace, and we see risks in both directions.”

As sourced from previous reports, including those in reputable financial outlets, the key emphasis remains on responsiveness to future economic indicators and global financial conditions. With the Reserve Bank playing a critical role, the path of the official cash rate will be pivotal in steering New Zealand's economic course over the coming years.

Published:Tuesday, 3rd Dec 2024
Source: Paige Estritori

Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.

Share this news item:

Finance News

Clear

Investor Loans Surge Amidst Australia's $12 Trillion Property Market Milestone

24 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

Recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reveals a significant uptick in investor activity within the housing market. In the third quarter of 2025, new investor loans increased by 13.6%, contributing to a 12.3% annual growth. This surge has propelled the total value of Australia's residential real estate to an unprecedented $12 trillion, effectively doubling its worth over the past decade. - read more

APRA Implements New Cap on High Debt-to-Income Home Loans

24 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a significant policy change aimed at mitigating risks in the housing market. Effective February 2026, APRA will implement a cap on high debt-to-income (DTI) home loans, limiting banks to issuing no more than 20% of new home loans with DTI ratios of six times or higher. This measure applies to both owner-occupier and investor loans, excluding new housing developments. - read more

Australia Leads Global Trends with 122% Surge in Sustainable Loan Issuance

24 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

In the first half of 2025, Australia experienced a remarkable 122% increase in sustainable loan issuance, a stark contrast to the 21% decline observed globally during the same period. This surge underscores Australia's commitment to environmental sustainability and the growing integration of green finance within the nation's financial sector. Find out now if you qualify and compare rates, offers and options from multiple lenders - without a credit check! - read more

RBA's October 2025 Financial Stability Review: Key Insights

16 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its October 2025 Financial Stability Review, providing a comprehensive analysis of the nation's financial system amidst ongoing global economic uncertainties. The report underscores the resilience of Australia's financial institutions, while also highlighting areas requiring vigilant oversight. - read more

Australian Finance Departments Embrace AI and Automation

16 Dec 2025: Paige Estritori

In a significant shift towards digital transformation, Australian finance departments are increasingly adopting artificial intelligence (AI) and automation technologies to streamline operations and enhance decision-making processes. This trend reflects a broader global movement where financial institutions leverage technology to improve efficiency and maintain a competitive edge. - read more

Click for more Finance News