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RBA's Hawkish Stance Leaves Homeowners Awaiting Rate Cut Relief

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained the cash rate at 3.6 per cent, a decision anticipated by economists and market participants.

However, the unexpectedly cautious rhetoric from the RBA's board and governor, Michele Bullock has prompted a rethink among analysts on the timing of future rate cuts.

Initially, economists at Commonwealth Bank predicted a rate cut in November, but now they've shifted their expectation to February following the RBA's recent tone and data releases. This adjustment comes in response to stronger-than-expected economic activity and consumer price index results, which suggest inflation might exceed the RBA's forecasts.

Belinda Allen, head of Australian economics at CBA, cited a significant uplift in trimmed mean inflation and robust consumer activity as key factors contributing to CBA's revised forecast. These indicators imply that the RBA may hold interest rates steady during the remaining meetings in 2025.

Other financial institutions are also adjusting their predictions. JP Morgan's Ben Jarman has withdrawn his call for a November rate cut, while the probability estimated by money markets has dropped from over half to approximately one-third.

Conversely, Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC, retains his outlook for a rate cut in November. He acknowledges the risk of fewer cuts than previously expected and emphasises that future decisions will heavily depend on the consumer price index data set for release at the end of October.

This wait-and-see approach underscores the RBA's commitment to monitoring inflationary trends and economic data closely. For mortgage holders, this means that immediate interest rate relief may be delayed as the central bank grapples with the evolving economic landscape.

As observers await the forthcoming CPI data on 29 October, the potential for an interest rate adjustment in the coming months remains contingent on how inflationary pressures unfold.

Published:Wednesday, 1st Oct 2025
Source: Paige Estritori

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Finance News

Star Entertainment Group Secures Loan Covenant Waiver Amid Financial Challenges

05 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

Star Entertainment Group, a prominent Australian casino operator, has successfully secured a loan covenant waiver under its syndicated facility agreement as of September 30, 2025. This development comes at a critical juncture for the company, which has been navigating a series of financial and operational challenges. - read more

ANZ Bank Faces A$240 Million Penalty for Bond Deal Misconduct and Customer Service Failures

05 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

ANZ Group, Australia's fourth-largest bank, has agreed to pay a record A$240 million ($159.5 million) in penalties following investigations by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) for major misconduct. The violations include acting unconscionably during a A$14 billion government bond deal in April 2023, which the regulator says led to A$26 million in lost government funds. ANZ’s improper trading placed downward pressure on bond prices, undermining government funding. - read more

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Achieves Record A$10.25 Billion Profit Amid Lending Surge

05 Oct 2025: Paige Estritori

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has reported a record full-year cash profit of A$10.25 billion ($6.69 billion) for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025. This impressive performance is attributed to robust growth in both home and business lending, coupled with stable interest margins. - read more

DBS Bank Targets A$20 Billion in Australian Lending Amidst Strengthening Trade Ties

27 Sep 2025: Paige Estritori

DBS Bank, Singapore's largest lender, has announced ambitious plans to double its Australian lending book from A$11 billion to A$20 billion over the next five years. This strategic expansion aims to capitalize on the growing trade relationships between Australia and Southeast Asian nations, including Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. - read more

Japanese Banks SMBC and MUFG Drive Growth in Australian Business Lending

27 Sep 2025: Paige Estritori

In a notable shift within Australia's financial sector, Japanese banking giants Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) have emerged as key drivers of growth in business lending. As of July 2025, business lending volumes across Australia's top 10 authorized deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) reached A$925 billion, with SMBC and MUFG leading the expansion. - read more

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